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Address: 5816 N 39th St, Paradise Valley, AZ 85253
Lot Purchase Price: $2,750,000
Strategy: Build ~8,000 SF luxury spec home (plans ~90% complete)
Target Buyer: Ultra-luxury owner-occupant market in Paradise Valley
| Address / Description | Size (SF) | Sale Price | $/SF | Sale Date | Distance | DOM | Notes |
| Crown Canyon Estate (7140 N 40th St) | 8,132 | $16,850,000 | $2,073 | May 2025 | ~2.5 mi | N/A | Ultra-exclusive gated community w/ design awards |
| 8,500 SF Spec (Unnamed) | 8,500 | $13,100,000 | $1,541 | Apr 2024 | ~1.8 mi | ~12+ mo | Premium hillside view lot |
| 6633 E Horseshoe Rd | 7,834 | $8,400,000 | $1,072 | Jun 2025 | ~1.3 mi | N/A | Modern desert contemporary |
| 9023 N 53rd St | 7,673 | $7,500,000 | $977 | Oct 2023 | ~1.0 mi | N/R | Luxury custom 2023 build |
The range of these comps is $977–$2,073/SF.
Median of these four comps: ~$1,310/SF.
To remain conservative, using $1,200/SF as ARV for a well-positioned 8,000 SF build.
8,000 SF × $1,200/SF = $9,600,000
| Category | Amount ($) |
| Lot Purchase | $2,750,000 |
| Construction Budget (@ $350/SF) | $2,800,000 |
| Design / Permits / Soft Costs | $500,000 |
| Sales Costs (6%) | $576,000 |
| Total Investment | $6,626,000 |
| Projected ARV | $9,600,000 |
| Net Profit | $2,974,000 |
| Cash-on-Cash ROI | ~44.9% |
| Build Cost / SF | Build Cost | Net Profit | ROI |
| $325 | $2,600,000 | $3,174,000 | 48% |
| $350 | $2,800,000 | $2,974,000 | 45% |
| $375 | $3,000,000 | $2,774,000 | 42% |
| $400 | $3,200,000 | $2,574,000 | 39% |
Market data shows potential to push well beyond the $9.6M ARV if the design approaches Crown Canyon or ultra-premium hillside specs.
Even at a conservative $1,200/SF ARV, ROI is ~45% at a $350/SF build cost.
Value-engineering construction without sacrificing luxury finishes will be key to maximizing profit.
| File Name | Size | |
|---|---|---|
PV_Luxury_Spec_Build_Proforma.docx |
38kb
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Download |
3 Bedrooms | 3 Baths | 2,450 ft
4 Bedrooms | 2.5 Baths | 2,942 ft
5 Bedrooms | 4.5 Baths | 6,000 ft
4 Bedrooms | 3 Baths | 3,500 ft
